On the risks of military escalation and the Middle East's slide toward unprecedented phase of armed violence and instability

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The Middle East and North Africa Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (MENAPPAC) expresses its deep concern over the rapidly escalating military developments in the region, including the reciprocal use of military force between Israel, the United States of America, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The expansion of hostilities to other states, alongside the involvement of armed non-state actors, risks widening the scope of confrontation and exposing regional and international peace and security to serious dangers and threatening to trigger prolonged cycles of violence in a region already marked by fragile stability. 

The prohibition of the threat or use of force constitutes a peremptory norm of contemporary international law, as stipulated in Article 2(4) of the Charter of the United Nations. Accordingly, any recourse to military force outside the framework of international legality, or without fulfilling the strict conditions set forth in the Charter, constitutes a breach of international legal obligations. In this context, we condemn the military attack that targeted the Islamic Republic of Iran on 28 February 2026. At the same time, we reject the escalatory retaliatory responses carried out by Iran and the attacks that affected other countries in the region. We affirm that the logic of reciprocal strikes cannot constitute a legitimate or sustainable basis for regional security. 

The invocation of the right of self-defence as stipulated in Article 51 of the UN Charter remains subject to the occurrence of an actual armed attack, must comply with the criteria of necessity and proportionality, as well as the obligation of immediate reporting to the Security Council. Expansive or preventive interpretations of this right—outside the established jurisprudence of international law and the rulings of the International Court of Justice -risk weakening the collective security system and undermining the legal constraints governing the use of force. We remind all parties that any military operations, whether conducted in an international or non-international armed conflict, remain governed by the provisions of international humanitarian law, particularly the 1949 Geneva Conventions and relevant customary rules. This includes the principle of distinction between civilians and combatants, the principle of proportionality, the prohibition of attacks against civilian objects, and the obligation to take all feasible precautions to spare civilian populations from the effects of military operations. The protection of civilians and the guarantee of unhindered access to humanitarian aid are not political discretion but binding legal and moral obligations on all parties without exception. In this context, we express our full solidarity with all innocent civilian victims of armed conflicts across the region. We also warn of the increasing risks facing human rights defenders and peace activists amid escalating tensions and deteriorating security conditions. The assassination of Iraqi feminist activist Yanar Mohammed in North Baghdad on 2 March 2026 illustrates the dangerous climate of impunity and further undermines the foundations of accountability and the rule of law. 

Regional and international security cannot be achieved through an escalating arms race, whether in the conventional or nuclear domains. We therefore call for full compliance with the obligations of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the limitation of nuclear energy use to peaceful purposes under international oversight, and for serious efforts toward establishing a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. We also emphasise the importance of implementing the Arms Trade Treaty to curb the proliferation of conventional weapons that fuel and prolong conflicts. 

The continuation of military escalation carries repercussions that extend beyond the immediate security dimension, affecting regional and international economic security, including the safety of vital maritime corridors and the stability of global energy markets - particularly amid threats related to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It also entails environmental consequences resulting from the intensive use of weapons, with serious implications for ecological balances and the rights of present and future generations. At the same time, diverting public resources toward militarisation rather than investing in sustainable development, education, and job creation deepens the structural crises facing young people in the region and contributes to rising levels of migration, displacement, and social despair. 

In accordance with the provisions of Chapter VI of the United Nations Charter, we call on all parties to immediately and unconditionally cease hostilities, refrain from any further escalatory actions, and pursue the peaceful settlement of disputes, through negotiation, mediation, and good endeavors through diplomatic efforts. Serious channels for political dialogue must be opened to prevent the region from sliding into a broader regional confrontation. We also urge the United Nations, the League of Arab States, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to assume their full responsibilities at this critical moment, take clear positions regarding violations of international law, and work toward launching a credible and sustainable political process. Furthermore, we stress the importance of the effective implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security, ensuring the full and meaningful participation of women in negotiation and peacebuilding processes, while also empowering young people to contribute to shaping a more stable and just future. 

We at MENAPPAC believe that the current moment requires all parties - states and non-state actors alike - to demonstrate strict adherence to both the letter and the spirit of international law, and to prioritise the logic of legal responsibility over the calculations of power. The continuation of war will only deepen divisions and reshape power balances through force rather than negotiation. Peace, therefore, is not an idealistic option but an existential necessity for the region and for the world.

As part of GPPAC, MENAPPAC is a regional network that brings together 15 civil society organisations working on peace and human security issues across the Middle East and North Africa region. The network promotes dialogue, facilitates collective reflection, and delivers policy-relevant peacebuilding analysis.